I have a controversial opinion within the world of NFL media: An analyst’s preseason predictions should be celebrated and confirmed as correct if they hold true over the first four weeks of the season.
While I understand your immediate and vehement pushback—had I nominated the Saints as a Super Bowl contender last year, I would not have looked inaccurate after early blowout wins over the Panthers and Cowboys—my reasoning is that beyond this point in time most of what we have gleaned in calls, research and film watching melts into the inevitability that only four or five teams can win the Super Bowl based on the overall depth of their rosters and the talent level of their quarterbacks. It would be quite boring if, every summer, we just went on television and podcasts and in our written columns and said: “None of this matters because of Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes.”
It’s almost like the Shanahan coaching tree life philosophy, which, and I’m paraphrasing a bit here, essentially boils down to: .
If the Colts get off to a hot start and I said in June that I like the Colts, I want to cash out now and take my prize, thank you very much.
And maybe that’s part of the reason we’re awarding players through the quarter mark of the NFL season (made more complicated by that pesky 17th game and my inability to do math). The end of the year will be different. Much different. But that should not take away from the greatness occurring now.
With that in mind, here’s what my theoretical ballot would look like:
MVPJosh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
While Allen will ultimately leave my second choice, Dak Prescott, by the wayside when the Bills approach playoff contention and the Cowboys collapse under the weight of their owners’ glaring indifference, both of these quarterbacks have been a force with Prescott remaining in the conversation thanks to a series of breathless high-wire performances in shootout games that can not be replicated over the course of a season. Prescott threw the singular best ball of the season to set up overtime against the Packers in Week 4 and has completed nearly 80% of his passes in each of the past two weeks. He throttled a Packers defense without the help of CeeDee Lamb.
That said, Allen has been the picture of quarterback efficiency and the Bills’ success rate is staggering when you factor in the utter likelihood of a drive ending in points. Buffalo is third in points per play, second in first downs logged and first in EPA per play. At this point, Allen may be at the peak of his physical powers and, simultaneously, the height of his comfort level in the offense.
