It’s a day match, the weather is iffy, the ground is traditionally low-scoring – where will England vs India be won and lost?
Nagraj Gollapudi and Shiva Jayaraman26-Jun-20241:33
Will India continue with three left-arm spinners against England?
Rohit-Kohli vs Archer and Co.In the 20 balls he has faced from Jofra Archer in T20s, Rohit Sharma has been dismissed three times, scoring just 17 runs. Virat Kohli, meanwhile, has had a long-running struggle playing Moeen Ali, across formats. Moeen has got the better of Kohli ten times in international cricket. Six of those have come in Tests, three times in ODIs, and one in T20Is. In all T20 cricket, Moeen has got Kohli out twice, conceding 26 runs in 18 balls in the process. Moeen has also taken Rohit’s wicket twice in T20s, and conceded 21 runs off 13 deliveries.While Moeen’s numbers in the powerplay have not been strong this tournament – 40 runs off 24 balls with one wicket – England could turn to him to put early pressure on Rohit and Kohli, especially in a day match on a pitch that has favoured spin historically.ESPNcricinfo LtdIndia’s openers will be aware that Archer – economy of just over eight in the powerplay with three wickets – will pose difficult questions to them. Reece Topley, who has an economy rate of just over six and one wicket in the powerplay, will share the new ball with Archer, with Moeen possibly bowling at least one if not two overs to make use of the hard seam. England wouldn’t mind if Rohit and Kohli choose aggression, since they know the dice is loaded in their favour.How about Dube at No. 3?In case Rohit falls early, expect England to mount pressure by bowling spin from both ends against Kohli and Rishabh Pant, who has played at No. 3 throughout the World Cup. Kohli and Pant don’t have great strike rates against spin. In T20s since the start of 2021, Kohli has struck at 116.98 against spinners, Pant has a strike rate of 125.00.Will India then dare to push Shivam Dube ahead of Pant? Dube’s role has primarily been to attack spin and disrupt the opposition’s bowling plans in the middle overs.In all likelihood, though, India will not gamble at this stage of the tournament and persist with the batting order they have played with so far.Archer vs Suryakumar and HardikEngland’s abundance of bowling allrounders allow them the luxury of keeping at least two overs of Archer for the death. In the three matches where he has bowled four overs, Archer has bowled two at the death only once – against South Africa, where he picked up the wickets of David Miller and Marco Jansen, and gave away 16 runs. He helped restrict the target, but England fell short anyway.ESPNcricinfo LtdIf Archer ends up bowling two at the death against India, it is likely he will come up against the power-hitting pair of Suryakumar Yadav and Hardik Pandya. And Archer won’t mind that one bit. In all T20s, Archer has dismissed Hardik three times and Suryakumar once. If that’s not too impressive, look at the batters’ strike rates against him: Hardik’s is 110.86 (46 balls, 51 runs) and Suryakumar’s is 121.73 (23 balls, 28 runs).Attack Bumrah or play him out?Jasprit Bumrah is the biggest hurdle for England to cross. Bumrah’s ability to execute his plans to the last dot, ball after ball, regardless of the phase he bowls in, the opponents, the importance of the match or format, makes him, as Osman Samiuddin noted during the 2023 ODI World Cup – a one of a kind.ESPNcricinfo LtdBumrah has usually delivered two overs in powerplays and the other two mostly at the death. Guyana is a venue where experts recommend going hard in the powerplay, after which scoring becomes tougher as the pitch slows down quickly. Jos Buttler and Phil Salt have been explosive in the powerplay, with England leading the run chart in the phase. Buttler, though, has been dismissed by Bumrah four times in 12 innings in T20s, scoring just 71 runs off 82 balls.When Buttler bats deep, he invariably has a positive influence on the match result. So if England want to go hard against Bumrah, they might leave that job to Salt and if that plan crashes, they can think about promoting Sam Curran as an aggressor at No. 3.Match-up to watch: Buttler vs KuldeepIf Buttler does end up batting deep, he will run into Kuldeep Yadav, who has been one of the best bowlers in the world in the last year across formats.ESPNcricinfo LtdButtler has always been hesitant to attack Kuldeep, as the numbers suggest: 87 runs off 63 deliveries while getting out three times. The most recent dismissal came in March during the IPL when Kuldeep forced his Delhi Capitals captain Pant to review successfully for lbw after Buttler attempted to reverse sweep him from middle stump.England’s batters have a good record against left-arm spin so they will hope not to be troubled by the pair of Axar Patel and Ravindra Jadeja.The main challenge is likely to come from Kuldeep, whose economy of 6.02 against Full Member teams in the middle overs since 2022 is the (just about) second to Rashid Khan’s (6.00) among the 70 bowlers who have bowled 300 or more balls in this period.
