Newcastle United have been playing outside of the sphere of form and fluency that captured the awe and admiration of many for some time now, with Eddie Howe's side knowing that failing to defeat Wolverhampton Wanderers on Saturday afternoon could be detrimental in the fight for top four.
Indeed, Champions League qualification seems a stretch as it is, with the Magpies a staggering 15 points behind fourth-placed Aston Villa after 26 matches, though the new UEFA coefficient rankings could open up Europe's elite club competition through a fifth-place finish.
The crux of Newcastle's problems stem from their shoddy defensive record, having gone nine Premier League matches without a clean sheet and shipped 31 goals from the previous 12 fixtures.
The continued absence of Nick Pope, compounded by the injury problems that have ravaged Sven Botman's former fluidity and dominance, is damaging, like a spreading stain, and Howe must now ensure that St. James' Park restores its imperiousness to bat away Wolves and mount a late-season purple patch.
Newcastle team news
It would be remiss to discuss Newcastle's drop in form this season without acknowledging the catalogue of injuries that have made life rather tough for Howe and co.
Pope, as mentioned, continues to recuperate from a dislocated shoulder, while Matt Targett is nearing a comeback but will not be risked this weekend.
Dan Burn has not been at the races recently and will likely be rested in place of Tino Livramento, who is much better equipped to deal with the pace and directness of Pedro Neto.
Rested in midweek as modest Newcastle defeated Blackburn Rovers in the FA Cup, Botman is likely to return to the starting line-up in place of Jamal Lascelles.
Why Sven Botman is underperforming
Botman signed for Newcastle from Lille in a deal worth around £35m back in July 2022 and he was mesmerising in his defensive duties last term as Newcastle qualified for the Champions League.
“Sven is looking good,” said Howe. “We just felt with Sven, he would benefit more from training than playing. He’s another player that’s come back from a longer-term injury. He’s come back into the team, but we just felt he needed more individualised training to get back to his very best. We could definitely see him (against Wolves) though."
The 24-year-old played 73 minutes one week ago as his side were thumped to a 4-1 defeat in London by Arsenal, and after scoring an own goal and making another big defensive error, the Dutchman was branded with a 3/10 match rating by The Shields Gazette.
Still, Botman has proven his worth as one of the Premier League's best defenders and he will return to form soon, and against Wolves, he has the perfect opportunity to do just that.
Crisp in his distribution, completing 91% of his passes, and usually sturdy in his defensive efforts, winning 63% of his contested duels (as per Sofascore), Botman will be crucial against a dogged and uniform Old Gold side that will think they have a real chance of winning on Tyneside.
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The rearguard is not the only area of concern for Howe though, and while last weekend's loss in London was a bitter pill to swallow, the goalscoring return of Joe Willock off the bench added an invaluable dimension to the engine room, and now he must be unleashed from the outset.
Why Joe Willock should be unleashed vs Wolves
Willock did actually start earlier this week as Newcastle prevailed against Blackburn, playing just over an hour of action before understandably being withdrawn early.
The £80k-per-week star didn't impress, completing 87% of his passes but only managing 30 touches – less than goalkeeper Martin Dubravka's 40 – and winning just one of his eight contested duels and failing with each of his four attempted dribbles, also being dribbled past twice.
But having impressed last weekend against his former club Arsenal, winning two of three duels and making a tackle to complement his consolation strike, there will be hope that he has recovered enough coherence in his play to make a mark against Wolves, who are actually one point ahead of tenth-placed United after a burst of form under Gary O'Neil.
Willock has been terribly unfortunate on the injury front this season but he was electrifying in his creative prowess last term, creating 12 big chances and providing six assists in the Premier League to offer a constant outlet for the likes of Alexander Isak and Callum Wilson.
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This term, however, his injuries have left him with only one Premier League start so far, so that sure could change as Howe seeks different routes to clinch success.
As per FBref, the one-time Hale End graduate ranks among the top 16% of midfielders across Europe's top five leagues over the past year for goals scored, the top 2% for assists, the top 1% for progressive carries and the top 2% for successful take-ons per 90.
28 Oct 2023 – Premier League
Molineux
2-2 draw
12 Mar 2023 – Premier League
St. James' Park
2-1 win
28 Aug 2022 – Premier League
Molineux
1-1 draw
08 Apr 2022 – Premier League
St. James' Park
1-0 win
02 Oct 2021 – Premier League
Molineux
2-1 loss
The 5 foot 10 dynamo has been lauded for his “infectious” presence on the pitch by Howe and Newcastle could certainly do with this now.
Dynamic and combative, Willock is the missing link in midfield and his return to the starting line-up will only serve to enhance those around him, boosting Bruno Guimaraes' elite distribution and Sean Longstaff's industriousness.
Newcastle's porous backline is a far cry from last year's strength and solidity, but the issues pervade the whole squad and Willock's inclusion and success will be vital to the rekindling of form that may yet see Howe engineer an emphatic end to the campaign.
Still in the FA Cup and with it all to play for in the Premier League, Willock's return comes at the perfect time, and he might just play a defining role in the outcome this afternoon.
