From JasonReynoldz (@JasonReynoldz):
From Rogelio Gonzalez (@ironman12):
Jason and Rogelio, I combined your questions because I keep thinking this is a fascinating topic that we’re gonna be tackling again over the last few weeks of the calendar year and into early 2024, and I think the Commanders are the test case for how this will go down.
To be sure, coach Ron Rivera, GM Martin Mayhew and executive vice president of football for player personnel Marty Hurney can’t afford to throw this season overboard. They’ve got a new ownership group coming in. The franchise hasn’t posted a winning record in seven years (and has just three of those over the last 15 years), long before any of those guys were in D.C. This is a critical year, and history shows us that an incumbent brass has to do a lot to convince a new owner to hit the reset button.
And I think if you look at the teams most likely to be in the mix, you’ll find a lot of cases like this one, where circumstances will prevent any early-season tanking. Just taking the Vegas odds, the 10 longest shots for the Super Bowl (thus most likely to be in the first pick mix) feature four teams with first-year head coaches (tough to tank in Year 1 when you’re trying to establish a program), and at least one other hot-seat situation (Tampa?).
After that, you’ve got the Titans and Rams, who aren’t going to throw the season with Mike Vrabel and Sean McVay in charge; the Falcons, who are in Year 3 and need to take a step forward under Arthur Smith and Terry Fontenot; and the Raiders, who are in a similar spot, needing to take a step after Josh McDaniels retooled in his first season in Vegas.
So it’s hard to have a favorite now, or say someone’s tanking. But when we get closer to the trade deadline? That’s something else entirely. With USC’s Caleb Williams and North Carolina’s Drake Maye looming as first-pick-in-most-drafts type of prospects, I certainly think with teams approaching Halloween (I believe the deadline this year will be Nov. 1) at 2–6 or 1–7 or 0–8, we’ll see more fire sales across the league as a form of creative tanking.
And if that happens, buckle up. Because we could see some rather interesting roster management from there forward.
